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Tuesday, December 30, 2008
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"Green Stimulus" Is The Modern Equivalent of Breaking Windows

The battle cries have been raging for a few weeks now, regarding a much anticipated "stimulus package" to be passed by Congress, more than likely right after the inauguration.  Governors and mayors have been flying and driving to Washington for some time, begging and pleading for more money, and listing off all the "public works" projects they could implement immediately with the money in order to "jump start" the economy.  Many are also calling for a "green stimulus", which would help to fulfill Obama's promise to "create 5 million green jobs".

But if they want to help the economy, why don't these people just walk down Main Street and start breaking windows in store fronts?  After all, even that helps the economy, does it not?  Yes, it's sad to be vandalized, but then the shop keeper will hire a glazier to fix the window.  That glazier then has more money to spend on buying things for his family, and so the economy grows, all because someone vandalized a storefront!  So to help the economy grow, all we have to do is start destroying other people's property, right?  Of course not, because this ignores the cost to the shop keeper.  The money that went to the glazier could have been spent on hiring another worker in the store, or on increased advertising to improve his business.  In the end, the shopkeeper had to spend money to return to the status quo (a functioning window), and therefore the economy is actually worse off.  He spent money, in order to simply stay the same!

Hopefully, this seems obvious to you, but you'd be amazed at how many times people use that very logic to justify economic actions, especially by government.  Have you ever heard someone argue that war is actually good for the economy, because it stimulates production, and creates innovation?  But what of the damage that war causes to property and the lives it takes?  And if we didn't spend that money on war time production, we could have spent that money on innovations in health care, or any number of other peaceful applications.  Then, once the war is complete, think of all the money that gets spent returning cities to their pre-war states.  Once again, we spend money to return to the status quo.  Countless activities tend to be postponed during wartime in order to allocate resources to the fighting.  Wars actually delay significant innovations.  While we're at it, we might as well start saying that hurricanes are good for the economy, because we have to rebuild cities after they are destroyed.  I'm sure there are a lot of Louisiana contractors who are doing great business, but I don't think the majority of New Orleans citizens would agree that they're better off.

But hold on a second.  How can we equate a stimulus package with breaking a window?  As described above, the issue with the vandal is that he performs an action which forces the shopkeeper to spend money to simply return to the status quo.  The ancillary benefit to others in the community is unimportant in this regard, and can't be used to negate the harm to the shopkeeper.  But the effect on the shopkeeper can be stated more generally.  The vandal performs an action which forces the shopkeeper to spend money in some fashion the shopkeeper would rather not do, which does not benefit the shopkeeper.  Which is exactly what a "stimulus" package does.

People seem to forget at times like this that stimulus money doesn't come from the ether.  It is acquired in one of three ways.  It is either acquired directly from money received via taxation, by borrowing money against future taxation, or by printing money.  All of these are the equivalent to the vandal who breaks the window.  Taxation and borrowing incur a cost on the shopkeeper either now, or in the future.  And printing money incurs a cost on the shopkeeper by making the money he holds today less valuable, which is a cost in and of itself.

Then, the government takes money we would normally have spent on something, and redirect the funds to something else that those in power feel is more important.  However, this no more stimulates the economy than fixing a broken window does.  In other words, any old spending does not equal "growth".  Growth occurs when spending is done which either responds to (and nurtures) economic demand, or creates demand that does not exist.  "Green Stimulus" is not an economic end to itself, but rather an adjective to other types of growth, that has a cost associated with it.

One plan is based on the fact that investing in energy efficient buildings would go a long way to create jobs and help the economy. The so-called Architecture 2030 plan recommends an investment of $171.72 billion over two years combining a housing mortgage buy-down and an accelerated-depreciation program for commercial buildings with energy efficiency. This plan could create over 3 million jobs in the building sector and over 4 million indirect jobs plus an additional 350,000 jobs from consumer spending.

The retrofitting and construction of green schools -- the largest construction sector in the United States -- will do the same. Between 2006 and 2008, we spent $80 billion on school construction. If we build those buildings green, they cost less than 2 percent more to construct; however, they pay for themselves in a few years. Consequently, municipalities with major school systems are increasingly looking at "green building" and renovation as they work to update school facilities and save the district money in utility bills. A green school can save a school enough money to hire two additional teachers -- all while preventing 585,000 lbs of CO2 from hitting the atmosphere.

In other words, the government will "break the window" of the building by declaring it not efficient and require it to be rebuilt or retrofitted... the modern day equivalent of forcing the owner to hire a glazier.  While the cost of making a building green at construction may only be 2% more (and we only have the author's word on that), retrofitting is significantly more expensive, and adds no growth to the economy.  It only diverts money away from other potential spending in order to "fix" a perfectly functional building.  There are also no statistics that show when the savings will come to offset the increased cost.  When talking about the need for stimulus today, that is significant.  Those tax dollars could be better spent on immediate growth, instead of what is the essentially a net loss today, for some undetermined potential future savings.  Spending on "green transportation" does the same thing.  It declares the functional roads and bridges of today to be broken, which must be replaced with new infrastructure.  But once again, this is not growth.  It is merely spending to return us to the status quo of transportation (but by different physical means).

That's not to say that trains aren't useful for certain types of travel scenarios.  But the reality is that the demand for growth in this area is not nearly as high as those in power want to believe.  If it were, then more private solutions in this area would pop up, instead of ones which require heavy government subsidization.  Instead, those who would like to see these types of projects funded for non-economic reasons are using the current crisis as an excuse to gain funding they normally wouldn't be able to get.

In the end, the only "stimulus" we need is to force government to take less of our money, so that we can spend it on things we the people demand, through our own spending and savings.  That is what generates real, sustained growth that will last.

# Posted at 10:42 AM by Nick  |  Comment Feed Link 7 Comments  |  No Trackbacks

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Tuesday, December 30, 2008 10:45:46 PM (Central Standard Time, UTC-06:00)
One hundred and sixty years later and Bastiat's essay "What Is Seen and What Is Not Seen" is still not taught in schools. It is fascinating that people have not been told how to tell a good economist from a bad one.

There is only one difference between a bad economist and a good one: the bad economist confines himself to the visible effect; the good economist takes into account both the effect that can be seen and those effects that must be foreseen.


Before the green stimulus the shopkeeper had:
1) A working, but politically incorrect window, and
2) A sum of money to be used for some purpose (even savings is a purpose)

After the green stimulus the shopkeeper had:
1) A working, possibly better, but certainly politically correct window.

Nick, I don't even see the status quo here.

Wednesday, December 31, 2008 12:04:34 PM (Central Standard Time, UTC-06:00)
In other words, the government will "break the window" of the building by declaring it not efficient and require it to be rebuilt or retrofitted... the modern day equivalent of forcing the owner to hire a glazier.
That is not an accurate paraphrase of what you have quoted here, Nick. It may be that somewhere, someone is proposing to condemn non-green buildings and force them to upgrade, but not Architecture 2030. That plan is predicated on giving incentives--not mandating--to new construction and retrofitting that is green.

In other words, no one is breaking the windows; they're just offering to subsidize the replacement of the window should the shopkeeper want to break it himself.
Wednesday, December 31, 2008 4:12:53 PM (Central Standard Time, UTC-06:00)
Why ridicule thrift? Why denigrate green building because you actually oppose subsidies? Buildings age and need to be replaced. It happens all the time. Anyone carrying out a new building project, public or private, especially one the size of a new school, is examining the most cost-effective and efficient means for heating and cooling. Businesses and schools are making this decision all the time, even without new mandates. They do it to save money in the long run, based on their assessment of the probability that energy costs will not be diminishing. Do you think energy costs will drop over the lifetime of that HV/AC system? That building? More efficient, less energy-consumptive heating and cooling systems help save money. Yes, the cost of "green" over old-style systems is within 10%, 5% or even 2%, depending on what you need to do, and how long you're willing to consider as a good break-even pay-off. Five years? Seven? Ten? They also appeal to anyone concerned with the state of the environment, many of whom use exactly the same sort of Bastiat-style examination of all the costs behind common assumptions. Given all the decades of subsidies to the energy industry, you think a gallon of gas accurately reflects its true costs? Can we factor in the cost of the war? Can we factor in the "cost" of public resources being given away? Does a therm of natural gas reflect the cost of private land being taken away for pipelines? Can we factor in every externality?
Wednesday, December 31, 2008 6:14:52 PM (Central Standard Time, UTC-06:00)
Jay, believe it or not, subsidizing the replacement is not actually much better, because it lowers the cost to the owner artificially. That means that a true comparison between the best way to spend the money cannot occur.

John, I'm not ridiculing green construction at all. If someone chooses to build in that manner, and decides to amortize the added capitol cost over several years in order to reap the benefit of increased efficiency because they view it as beneficial to their business model, that's fine. My point is not to say that green projects are necessarily bad, but rather to say that they are not such an absolute good that they should be encouraged absolutely, which is the suggestion here. They are not stimulus. And arguing that they should be enacted at all costs, using the moniker of stimulus is what is wrong here.
Wednesday, December 31, 2008 10:41:48 PM (Central Standard Time, UTC-06:00)
Jay, believe it or not, subsidizing the replacement is not actually much better, because it lowers the cost to the owner artificially.
The trouble is, Nick, that the non-green option has long been subsidized as a part of policy and tax code. Everything from the manufacturing process to the raw materials has been discounted along the way, and you know that. Whether or not you think any subsidy is fair is one thing. But a failure to recognize that the playing field has not been level is another.
Friday, January 02, 2009 8:39:26 AM (Central Standard Time, UTC-06:00)
Well, if you want to go that far Jay... everything is practically subsidized to some degree or another these days. The Federal Gov't has its hands in practically everything at some level.

Even green policies are already subsidized to a degree, and in some ways are already on a better playing field than non-green options. But, the solution is not to create a level playing field by subsidizing green more... but rather to remove subsidies on everything, there by create a truly level playing field where consumers choose the option they want, and businesses succeed for the correct reasons... not because they were able to rent seek from Washinton.

The "window breaking" parable is applicable to many things... and I use the green policies being pushed now, because they are currently relevent to the debate. The larger point however, is that creating any environment that utilizes rent seeking, is bad for the economy, and harmful to personal liberty.
Wednesday, January 14, 2009 10:50:27 PM (Central Standard Time, UTC-06:00)
Jay,

What do you mean by:

that the non-green option has long been subsidized as a part of policy and tax code. Everything from the manufacturing process to the raw materials has been discounted along the way

Are you suggesting that standard manufacturing processes have been subsidized at the expense of cleaner, greener processes? Seriously?

Consider the tax incentives for the manufacturers of Energy Star appliances (since the 90's I believe), carbon credits for utilities (late 70's) and tighter fuel economy standards (late 70's).
Ben
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