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Friday, December 26, 2008
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8th Largest Economy, But 1st Largest Deficit

I've mentioned before some of the interesting conversations I end up having when I visit California, and my family tries to convince me to move back.  I call it "The Sales Pitch", which one time ended in me calling them "California Snobs".  As the argument goes, California's economy is so productive, and they produce such a wide variety of goods, they can actually survive as their own country.  They produce more dairy than Wisconsin, more oranges than Florida, more peaches than Georgia... they produce more things than the states that are known for those items produce themselves!  California is a marvel!  All the red states in the middle of the country should bow down and pay homage to the wonderfulness that is California!  Well... that's how the sales pitch goes at least.

Of course, the only problem with that story is that California is going bankrupt.  While it may have a thriving economy, their government is so bloated, and so liberal in its spending, that they won't make it through March of next year:

If California and New York State were businesses, they'd be going bankrupt. If you're among the nearly 20 percent of Americans who live or work in these two states, the fiscal crisis is coming home for the holidays. And the worst is still on its way.

California, the world's eighth largest economy, will run out of money in March if the deadlocked legislature and Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger can't come to an agreement on tax-hikes and spending cuts. Its bonds have been reduced to near-junk status after decades of borrowing and spending. State Treasurer Bill Lockyer summed up the situation in terms unhelpful to the tourist industry: "California's fiscal house is burning down."
...
But New York is playing Ford to California's GM at this stage of the crisis. While the Golden State economy is comparatively diversified, its financial meltdown is further along, with entire cities and towns throwing in the towel and declaring bankruptcy.

The city of Vallejo—population 120,000—declared bankruptcy earlier this year because it was locked into spending 74 percent of its $80 million general fund budget on public-safety salaries. Police captains were entitled to receive $306,000 annually in pay and benefits, while 21 firefighters earned more than $200,000 a year, including overtime. After five years on the job, all were entitled to lifetime health benefits. Now two smaller towns north of San Francisco, Isleton and Rio Vista, also appear on the brink of bankruptcy.

In a preview of political fights to come, both New York State and California budgets are being crippled by outsized public sector union pension obligations that are now coming due in a perfect storm—a combination of an aging population, a declining tax base, and a fiscal crisis.

And how are those red states doing?  You know, the ones filled with backwater hicks who believe in Creationism?  Well, as this map (courtesy of the New York Times) shows, the states in the middle are doing far better overall than the ones on the coasts (click for a larger version):

Maybe Californians ought to rethink their plans to tromp to the border with saws and cut themselves off from the rest of the United States after all.  They may actually need the red states (that are still in the black) to bail them out.

Cue comment from my darling sister in 3... 2... 1...

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