Disclaimer The opinions expressed herein are my own personal opinions and do not represent my employer's view in anyway.
According to the the White House, a deal on the Big 2.5 Auto Bailout is "very likely":
The White House said Monday that it was "very likely" to reach a deal with Congress to help failing U.S. automakers but warned that Democratic lawmakers need to quickly provide their specific proposal."It sounds like we have agreement on those basic principles that would be required for a bill that the president could sign," White House press secretary Dana Perino told reporters....House and Senate aides were putting the finishing touches on a proposal that would draw emergency aid from an existing loan program meant to help the automakers build fuel-efficient vehicles. The size of the package hasn't been finalized, but it is expected to be between $14 billion and $17 billion.It would create a presidentially named overseer charged with running a broad auto industry restructuring, with the power to require immediate payback of the emergency loans early next year if the companies fail to take the steps necessary to overhaul themselves. It could also include a Cabinet-level oversight board composed of the heads of the departments of Treasury, Energy, Labor, Commerce and Transportation and the Environmental Protection Agency. Congressional aides outlined the emerging measure on condition of anonymity because it is not yet completed.
This is probably the worst of any of the ideas I've seen so far, which more than likely means it will pass. What it will do is create a goverment oversight board to do potentially run the auto companies, and assist them in "restructuring". Do you know what also allows for restructuring with oversight? Bankruptcy! The advantage of Chapter 11 bankruptcy however, is that ill-advised labor contracts can be renogiated, and more importantly, the people with the most at stake (those with debt in the current companies) are the ones who are placed in charge of the restructuring.
What the White House wants to do is to first give the companies money, then say that this money gives them enough debt to claim that they should be in charge of the restructuring. Why not just let the current debtors do the job that bankruptcy law already allows for, and not put the taxpayer on the hook for any more? The added advantage is that it will keep politics out of the process. Otherwise, we'll see suggestions float in like this:
To satisfy Rep. Waters’ desire to protect African-American dealers, to exempt them from the inevitable cull, Chrysler, Ford and GM would have to discriminate against both rural dealers and well-managed non-minority-owned urban dealers.Of course, that’s exactly what Rep. Waters wants. She wants to make any loans to the domestic automakers contingent on their continued support of dealers that are part of their problems in the first place. "Do you believe that if we are to rescue these big automobile manufacturers we should insist or include in our language support for the small independent dealers?"
Via VodkaPundit. Paul Ryan has already mentioned his support for some kind of bailout. He needs to change his mind, and prove to his constituents that he is what he claims to be, a principled Republican. Contrary to popular belief, our manufacturing economy has done very well without help from the auto industry. Wisconsin's economy has even benefited from many non-auto related manufacturing jobs:
Indeed, until the globalization of the financial crisis, American manufacturing exports were reaching record levels. Overall, U.S. industry has become among the most productive in the world – output has doubled over the past 25 years, and productivity has grown at a rate twice that of the rest of the economy. Far from dead, our manufacturing sector is the world's largest, with 5% of the world's population producing five times their share in industrial goods....Fortunately, the Big Three do not represent the entire picture of American manufacturing. Even within the Great Lakes region, Wisconsin, which ranks second in per capita employment in manufacturing, has held onto most of its industrial employment due to its large, highly diversified base of smaller-scale specialized manufacturers.If Congress and President Obama want to figure out how to restart our industrial economy, they need to travel not to Detroit but to an alternative universe that includes the South and Appalachia, where most of the new foreign-owned auto manufacturers have clustered. States like Alabama, with the second-largest per capita concentration of auto-related jobs, as well as South Carolina, Tennessee, Kentucky, Georgia and Mississippi, have been growing these high-wage jobs for a new generation. In the process, they have brought unprecedented opportunity to some of the nation's historically poorest regions.
We need to keep money out of the hands of government, so it can be used by those who know how best to use it. The real engine of the economy is you and I, who start businesses, study what will make money without worrying about politics, and respond to consumer demand. It's time for Paul Ryan to man up, and remember what party he belongs to.