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Tuesday, September 16, 2008
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The Brilliance of Firing Ned Yost

Normally I don't delve into baseball, but for some odd reason, I feel like I should comment on the decision to fire Ned Yost at the tale end of a losing streak, with only 12 games left in the regular season and the Brewer's in a real fight for a wild card playoff berth.

Brilliant decision.

Seriously.  Let's look at it this way.  There is basically nothing that Yost could have done at this point to improve the quality of his players.  The team is set, and they play how they play.  So look at it from the standpoint of the front office.  If they fire Yost, and nothing improves, they can simply say, "Well, Yost screwed it up so bad that even firing him wasn't enough to turn this slide around."  But, if the Brewers suddenly turn it around, they look like magicians, who saved their team's playoff aspirations and got the team there for the first time in 26 years.  In other words, their worst case outcome is no change, but their best case outcome is victory.  This is the perfect time to do something like this if you're in upper management.  So when this rare event happens, you have to take the opportunity.

The reality is, unless you can find specific calls that Yost made during the September slide that lead to losing games, there is no reason he deserves to lose his job.  But upper management rarely makes decisions based on reality.

# Posted at 10:34 AM by Nick  |  Comment Feed Link 4 Comments  |  No Trackbacks

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Tuesday, September 16, 2008 4:28:49 PM (Central Daylight Time, UTC-05:00)
"The reality is, unless you can find specific calls that Yost made during the September slide that lead to losing games, there is no reason he deserves to lose his job."

Easy. Yost makes bad calls during every game that hurt his team. The most basic examples are letting Bill Hall start, letting Gagne pitch in close games, never putting better hitters in for Kendall when the game is on the line etc. etc. But if you want a more specific example, here's Joe Sheehan from Baseball prospectus:

"Yost elected to walk Howard to face Pat Burrell. This was... well, it strains my vocabulary to find the right word for it. Howard cannot hit left-handers, and would be a platoon player if performance mattered anywhere near as much as reputation does. Or if he had a competent manager. Howard is at .228/.313/.458 against lefties in his career, .212/.287/.410 this year. Howard. Can't. Hit. Lefties. Shouse, on the other hand, is in the major leagues for exactly one reason: lefties can't hit him, to the tune of .175/.192/.289 this year, and .211/.263/.325 for his career, which includes a bunch of years when he was barely a major leaguer. Manuel sending Howard up against Shouse was a continuation of a theme for the Phillies: not hitting for Howard when he has little chance of doing something good. He was giving Yost an out, and Yost gave it right back.

"That set up Shouse versus Pat Burrell, which cried out for a right-handed reliever. After all, Shouse is a pure specialist (.307/.390/.455 vs. RHB career; .293/.371/.446 this year). The only way walking Howard even might make sense is if Yost were to bring in a righty to try and get a double play out of Burrell. Burrell doesn't have the big platoon splits he showed earlier in his career—he's a dangerous hitter against both kinds of hurlers—but leaving Shouse in to face him was asking for trouble.

"Think about this for a second. Yost had a 481 OPS pitcher facing a 697 OPS hitter. He elected to issue an intentional walk in that situation to allow an 817 OPS pitcher to face a 905 OPS hitter with an additional runner on base. That's when you start looking around the roof of the stadium for snipers, because gunpoint is the only place where that kind of decision makes sense."
Wednesday, September 17, 2008 11:26:11 AM (Central Daylight Time, UTC-05:00)
"The reality is, unless you can find specific calls that Yost made during the September slide that lead to losing games, there is no reason he deserves to lose his job."

The reality is you can't admit when you're wrong. See above.
Wednesday, September 17, 2008 11:43:07 AM (Central Daylight Time, UTC-05:00)
Believe it or not jijarwm... it's not about admitting right or wrong. The reason I put in the first statement, that normally I don't blog about the Brewers is that... well... I don't follow the Brewers.

My last statement about finding something specific isn't an assertion that he didn't do anything wrong. It's an assertion that merely having a slide isn't reason enough to fire someone. If there were good reasons, and you follow baseball enough to be able to point to specific coaching decisions for the reasons, then have at it.

However... I'm also cognicent of the fact that often times arm chair quarterbacks (or baseball managers) will deride the decisions of coaching staffs after the game is already won or lost. But the most common way to do this is to criticize the decision made, and not offer up something that they would have done instead.
Wednesday, September 17, 2008 3:06:45 PM (Central Daylight Time, UTC-05:00)
I wasn't looking for any retraction or anything. I was just telling you that, time and time again, Ned Yost made objectively wrong decisions that cost his team runs and games. Baseball is largely a numbers game, and Ned went against the numbers in his personnel decisions, in his bullpen decisions and in his pinch-hitter decisions. He's the kind of guy that would double down on a hard 12 in Blackjack when the dealer is showing a 6.

What should he have done? In the above instance, he should have had Shouse pitch to Howard. Boom. It's that easy. It may not work, but the odds of it working are MUCH better.
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