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Wednesday, April 23, 2008
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Too Little Too Late, or Too Much Too Early?

So the Pennsylvania Primary is finally over, and exactly what did it accomplish?  It kept Hillary in the race.  Despite what you may be reading this morning, nothing else happened.  Prior to Pennsylvania, the arguments for Hillary vs. Obama shaped up like this this:

Obama:  He has the lead in pledged delegates, and the lead in the popular vote, and has a high likelihood of maintaining both leads going into the convention.  He is the candidate that the people chose.  Choosing Hillary over Obama would lead to a civil war in the party.

Hillary:  Obama's early victories were style over substance before people knew him, or his views.  Hillary was outspent 3:1 in Pennsylvania and still won by 10 points.  The vast majority of Obama's victories were in states were Democrats aren't competitive in the general election either.  The Super Delegates need to perform their designated role and pick the candidate who has the best chance to win in November.

What has changed now that Hillary has won in Pennsylvania?  Nothing.  The talking points are still the same, and will remain the same up until the convention as long as Hillary continues to win states.  The only thing that can happen between now and convention time is that Hillary can lose the nomination by losing states she is supposed to win.  This answers Megan's question as to why the super delegates haven't committed yet.  They're waiting for the decision to be made for them.  If Hillary loses some states she's supposed to win between now and the convention, then they need not commit unnecessarily.  Never make a decision today if you don't have to.

In other interesting primary news... Ron Paul received 16% of the vote in Pennsylvania.  That doesn't look good for John McCain who is supposed to now be the anointed candidate.  Shouldn't his victories be higher than that?  Also interesting is the news that Ron Paul supporting delegates are being seated by many state conventions, often to the dismay and anger of local party officials.  While they are often bound to vote for McCain by state law at the convention, they will have a very interesting impact on the party platform.  The large number of Paul supporters in this position shows a weakness in the McCain machinery.  Many people simply voted in the primaries, but didn't follow through with the delegate selection process which left him wide open.

# Posted at 12:58 PM by Nick  |  Comment Feed Link 1 Comment  |  No Trackbacks

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Wednesday, April 23, 2008 4:55:51 PM (Central Daylight Time, UTC-05:00)
Maybe McCain will choose Ron Paul as his running mate.
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