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Saturday, January 05, 2008
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Did Rudy Really Not Try in Iowa?

According to Steve, the reason Rudy did so poorly, especially compared to Ron Paul, was because Rudy really wasn't competing in Iowa.  But is that true?  Here is some interesting analysis from Lew Rockwell, who examines the number of votes he received compared to the number of visits in the state:

- Paul - 27 Appearances, 11,598 votes
- Giuliani - 35 Appearances, 4,013 votes
- McCain - 38 Appearances, 15,248 votes
- Thompson - 75 Appearances, 15,521 votes
- Huckabee - 86 Appearances, 39,814 votes
- Romney - 109 Appearances, 29,405 votes

So Rudy actually campaigned more than Paul in Iowa, and received almost one third the votes.  Combine that with these results from a CNN entrance poll in Iowa, and it paints an even more troubling picture for Rudy.  When asked about the events in Pakistan, among those who said it was Very Important, Rudy only scored 4%, the worst result (except Hunter).  For those who's top issue was the War in Iraq, he only scored 3% (also worst except Hunter) and only 7% for those who view Terrorism as their top issue.  Those are his bread and butter issues.  Rudy's campaign is all about 9/11.  If he can't win on terrorism, then he simply can't win.  Also interesting in those results is that Ron Paul received 29% of the independent vote, more than any other candidate.

# Posted at 4:17 PM by Nick  |  Comment Feed Link 3 Comments  |  No Trackbacks

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Sunday, January 06, 2008 2:49:43 PM (Central Standard Time, UTC-06:00)
However, it would be interesting to take the number of appearances that Paul and Giuliani made in Iowa and cross-reference it with a calendar. To set the stage a little more accurately, let's add this from the website you cited: "Here is campaign event data for Iowa (01 Aug - 03 Jan)" so the dates were looking at are August 2007 up to Caucus day.

Did the number of Rudy appearances trail off as it came closer to the Iowa Caucus? My guess is that Rudy made
Sunday, January 06, 2008 2:50:23 PM (Central Standard Time, UTC-06:00)
...his visits closer to August '07 than to January '08.
Sunday, January 06, 2008 3:16:25 PM (Central Standard Time, UTC-06:00)
Apparently, the New York Daily News agrees with you, Nick and went further. Leaks from Rudy's campaign say he is upset that the guy who asked Rudy to read beat him like a rented mule.

I especially liked this amplification of your stats found in the Dail News Comments.

Huckabee - 86 Appearances, 39,814 votes = 463 votes per appearance
Paul - 27 Appearances, 11,598 votes = 429.5 votes per appearance
McCain - 38 Appearances, 15,248 votes = 401.3 votes per appearance
Romney - 109 Appearances, 29,405 votes = 269.8 votes per appearance
Thompson - 75 Appearances, 15,521 votes = 207 votes per appearance
Giuliani - 35 Appearances, 4,013 votes = 114.6 votes per appearance

If this is an accurate measure of efficiency (and I don't think it is), this means Rudy Giuliani can out spend Ron Paul 4 to 1 and only beat Paul 51.6% to 48.4% [458.4 to 429.5].

That’s gotta sting.
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