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Friday, January 04, 2008
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Score One for Jesus

Granted, I'm not an expert in election matters, but I'm going to give you my Iowa analysis all the same.  Huck got one from Jesus.  I think that about sums it up.  I'm not saying that there was divine help (though Huck may disagree), but I think he won because of his religion given the large number of evangelicals that live in Iowa.  Next was Romney for similar reasons, but also because he actually has ideas, not that I agree with them.  Thompson and Paul both scored pretty much where you'd expect at this point.  I think New Hampshire is going to be a much bigger deal for both those candidates because it's a real primary, as opposed to a caucus which is really not democratic at all.  New Hampshire could be especially big for Paul since it is the "Live Free or Die" state, and home of the Free State Project.  If he scores well there, it could provide the boost needed to get him the media attention it will take so he can really talk to more voters.

The McCain and Rudy results are interesting I think.  I say this because both of them ran scary, "the terrorists are going to kill you if you don't vote for me", ads just prior to the caucus.  I think that was a big mistake.  I don't think the Iraq War has played as big of a part in this election so far as many pundits thought it would.  Moreover, I don't think that in the end, voters like seeing that sort of thing, and I think it especially hurt Rudy.  The people who were drawn to that argument had to choose between McCain and Rudy (who ran substantially similar ads), and they all went to McCain.  I expect to see Rudy dropping out of the race after New Hampshire unless he can score a pretty big victory there.

On the Democratic side, we see a pretty close result among the top three.  I don't think this shows anything other than the closeness of the Democratic election, and that there simply is no front runner.  It's anyone's game.  Nobody should be surprised by Obama's win though, since Democratic caucusers are allowed to change their vote if their original candidate scores less than 15% (I believe) and Biden, Dodd and Kucinich all threw their support to Obama.

Update:  I should add how important the Tonight Show was for Huck vs. Romney.  Huck passed the "would I want to have a beer with this guy" test, while Romney comes off as a slick politician who you would trust less than a used car salesman.  I find this ironic, since I'm not sure that Huck would actually drink beer.

# Posted at 8:51 AM by Nick  |  Comment Feed Link 4 Comments  |  No Trackbacks

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Friday, January 04, 2008 10:59:40 AM (Central Standard Time, UTC-06:00)
First, hats off to your guy. I had him pegged at 10%, but I also had him pegged at a distant 4th instead of a close 5th. Unfortunately for you (and fortunately for me), if all things remain equal and the Dems don't use the opportunity of an early wrap-up by Obama to really meddle in the GOP, New Hampshire will be his zenith, much like it was Pat Buchanan's in the 1990s.

A couple of caveats:

- McCain's surge was a result of those ads; up until the close he had been in single digits in Iowa and indeed had been doing very little campaigning there.
- Giuliani was not at all focused on Iowa, and indeed he isn't focused on anything before Florida and the big liberal states of Super-Duper Tuesday. The virtual elimination of Romney helps him as it eliminates the biggest direct threat to that strategy.

I wouldn't discount Obama's win too much. Two of those candidates that told their supporters to make Obama their second choice are now out of the race, which, if the endorsement goes as expected, would repeat that effect in Iowa.
Friday, January 04, 2008 7:49:53 PM (Central Standard Time, UTC-06:00)
Romney isn't going to have a beer. He's mormon.
Saturday, January 05, 2008 12:00:05 AM (Central Standard Time, UTC-06:00)
"Whoever can be trusted with very little can also be trusted with a lot. Whoever is dishonest with very little is dishonest with a lot." Luke 16:10
"Beware of the false prophets, who come to you in sheep's clothing, but inwardly are ravenous wolves. You will know them by their fruits. Grapes are not gathered from thorn bushes nor figs from thistles, are they?" Mathew 7:15-16

Clearly, my fellow evangelicals are not paying attention to the red phrases in their Bibles.

Nor are they asking if the fruits born by Huckabee should be carried into the White House.
Saturday, January 05, 2008 7:38:12 AM (Central Standard Time, UTC-06:00)
OK, my mistake Steve. But the question to Rudy's campaign ought to be... why give up so much momentum to Huck and Romney?
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