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Wednesday, January 24, 2007
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Do Something Syndrome

Jay Bullock asks the following question this morning:

Why are conservatives, particularly social conservatives, so invested in denying that global climate change exists?

His post is rather long and ranting on the subject, but that's the crux of it right there.  Now then, I'm not one of the climate change deniers that he mentions, nor am I social conservative... in fact I don't deny that global climate change exists.  However, I will take a stab at answering this question from my perspective.  After all, it is my world.

First of all, Jay is working of an interesting set of assumptions:

There is no reason, other than the obstinance of many conservatives, particularly those in power, why this country hasn't taken the same steps forward that every other Western nation has in both recognizing that the problem exists and that our behavior contributes significantly to that problem.

The fact that the problem exists and that human behavior contributes significantly to the problem is hardly proven science.  The data is very much still open to interpretation.  In fact, there has been a lot of cherry picking of data regarding what the climate was like centuries ago in order to "prove" the change.  From the famous "hockey stick" which miraculously left out a significant warming period that occurred during medieval times, to attempting to understand the causes of the "little ice age" that occurred between the mid 1600's through the mid 1800's.  The scale of time that one must think about when examining global climate and geological phenomena is just not something that people are used to dealing with.  People look at what happened in the last 10 years, and then think its valid to extrapolate that data about 100 years in the future.  Hell, people want to try to compare this year to last and extrapolate that out.  It just doesn't work that way.  The variables in play here work out in scales that last decades, centuries, and even millennia.

Not only that, but the impact that humans have on the global environment is hardly known to be significant.  The amount of carbon that people put out compared with nature is trivial.  The impact that natural solar cycles have on our planet is also very significant, but is hardly ever talked about by global warming proponents.  In fact, I would argue that a great deal of global warming proponents are pretty damn egotistical to think that people have that significant of an impact on a system as large as the Earth.  I can't speak for social conservatives, but that may in fact be a root cause of their thinking.  After all, most religious people accept their person insignificance in the face of God, so it's rather easy for them to accept their insignificance in the environment.

Jay also tries to play a little switcheroo by talking about plate tectonics:

While certainly it's true that there is a small segment of the scientific community willing to deny the existence of global warming, surely that cannot be reason enough for conservatives to cling to. There is no question that often minorities of scientists can be right; consider that a mere half a century ago, only a tiny few geologists understood or promoted plate tectonics, something we all take for granted now. But the trick in these instances is to watch the movement--once scientists were able to read about, understand, and verify through their own experiments the concepts of plate tectonics, the scientific community shifted rapidly and solidly into consensus about it.

That's the interesting thing about science.  It's not stable, and nothing is ever proven.  If things were ever proven beyond a doubt, then we would never discover new things.  We used to be in consensus that Newton was right until Einstein came along and thought it might work differently.  We also used to think that light and sound worked the same way, and searched in vain for about 10 years for the Ether.  The fact that everyone is working on global warming doesn't mean that it's proven science.  It's a reality of how the university system and public funding work.  And by that, I don't mean that they're all liberal environmentalist hippies.  I mean that the system is set up in such a way that there is a definite confirmation bias that encourages new students to not go against the flow of current thinking, otherwise they'll never move forward in their careers.  The same thing has infected other areas of science, like research into String Theory.

What all of this has led to is a bad case of "do something syndrome".  Before we actually know the scale, or even the real cause of the problem, people are all up in arms to just do something... anything.  The problem, is that the scale of the problem (if it exists and we can change it) is so large that the cost of doing something is huge.  That makes it completely irresponsible to "do something" without knowing that it will actually work, which we don't.  Signing onto Kyoto would have seriously damaged our economy.  It's so harming, that no countries in Europe have come close to meeting their own goals.

People are jumping onto the Ethanol bandwagon, even though it's a less efficient fuel than gasoline (see update below), and the new demand is driving up the cost of food everywhere.  Mexico just announced that they're instituting price controls on corn because tortillas are getting too expensive.  Not a good thing for a country with so many poor that depend on that staple.  Similar effects are being felt in the U.S where the cost of feeding dairy and beef cattle is increasing.  The original EPA mandates on reformulated gas weren't done so much to help the environment, as they were to pass certain tests.  Reformulated gas decreases gas mileage, and puts out different pollution than normal gas that we just didn't happen to test for, but we did something anyway.

People are also falling in love with hydrogen fuel cell technology, without even realizing that hydrogen is not an energy producer, but rather an energy transporter in that system.  In fact, if we were to fully switch over to hydrogen fuel cells for our cars and stop using gas, odds are that pollution would increase (unless we were to fully switch over to nuclear power plants which environmentalists just looooovvveeee).  Of course, the cost of doing this would be huge as well.

And all of this to fix a problem that may or may not exist, that we may or may not be able to fix in the first place.  In fact, our time and resources might be better spent find ways to live and cope with global climate change, instead of trying to fight an war against it which cannot be won.  There is also an interesting economic argument to be made for delaying action, but Asymmetrical Information does a better job at explaining that than I could.

So to sum up, I would offer this question in response to Jay's.  Why are environmentalists and liberals so invested in ignoring the cost and impact of their policies on the people, and so willing to force them on people through the rule of law?

Update:  I should be a little more thorough in my statement about ethanol being less efficient than gasoline in order to be completely fair.  That statement is only true if used in the current line up of cars that allow you to use either E85 or gasoline.  If you have an engine that is designed with a high compression ratio meant only for E85, than it can be more efficient than gasoline, but can't be used with both fuels.  This has nothing do with the cost of mandating such technologies, only the pure efficiency argument.

# Posted at 9:57 AM by Nick  |  Comment Feed Link 8 Comments  |  No Trackbacks

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Thursday, January 25, 2007 3:38:28 AM (Central Standard Time, UTC-06:00)
You really have no idea on the climate change issue. Instead of spending an hour writing this post you could do some research and see what exactly happens. None of your arguments stand but they show your superficial overview.
I am not an expert on climate change and I can have the same sources of information that you can have - the internet. My overview is not more accurate on what could be the "reality" of the global warming but I think I have a better idea on who said what about this issue: there is not one article in a peer reviewed journal on the topic of climate change that disagrees with the fact that what global warming happens and it happens because of us. That means that all science people, playing their reputation, agree that global warming happens because of us. The non-decision you are describing happens only in regular newspapers. Casting a doubt is a PR manipulation and it clearly worked here setting the world of scientists apart from the world of general public.
To answer your question: Pollution is caused by the developed countries and the costs of trying to reverse the process affects only the developed countries. Not one person in the 3rd world (about 50% of the people living on Earth) is directly affected - they are not buying their bread anyway. Pollution does affect everyone, it is our 'gift' to everybody and it can only be tackled here, in the developed world. The fact that (here) poor people suffer the costs has to do with the general 'order of things' - they are really paying for everything else around here, aren't they?
I am sure this post will not change your views but I am also certain that you will think differently should you chose to inquire more in depth.
luvian
Thursday, January 25, 2007 8:49:15 AM (Central Standard Time, UTC-06:00)
Nick, I'm not a fan of ethanol, mostly because its production is inefficent. What needs to happen is an acceleration of fuel economy, since, after all, the cleanest gallon of gas is the one you don't burn.

But as to your substantive arguments in response: I think you can make the same confirmation bias argument against those who deny global warming while drawing paychecks from parties who have an interest in denying it. I also have a hard time believing that if someone *could* produce the "smoking gun" evidence that, whew!, we can all stop worrying now, the last thing that would happen is ostracism. That would be *good* news. But instead, all the peer-reviewed science is going the other way.

And, yes, scientific thinking changes, and part of what makes science so cool, as Richard Feynman eloquently argued for many decades, is that it's always a game of probabilities: The next time I drop something may be the time it floats away. But my point in bringing up plate tectonics was to show that there is instructive value to watching *how* changes in scientific consensus happen. Not that science must always be--orthogenetic is not exactlt the right term, but--building linearly toward perfection; however, science basically never goes back to discarded theories or worldviews. We're probably never going to see a resurgence of continental drift in the same way we'll probably never see a resurgence of burn-all-the-hydrocarbons-you-want-with-impunity.

And the way you've turned the question around is mostly reasonable: It isn't that we want to impose unreasonable costs and burdens on people or commerce; rather, it is necessary to consider the greater costs of *waiting*. The fact that large coalitions of business interests are now agitating for action on climate change tells me that they've run the numbers for themselves, and would rather we not wait any more.
Thursday, January 25, 2007 9:45:48 AM (Central Standard Time, UTC-06:00)
Luvian:
If humans are responsible for global warming, how did the glaciers melt when our "death machines" have only been on this planet for only ~150 years?

Then you say:
"Pollution is caused by the developed countries and the costs of trying to reverse the process affects only the developed countries"
Is that why China gets an exemption from the vaunted Kyoto treaty?
If you think its all about the pollution, expand your mind.
http://stillunreal.blogspot.com/2007/01/blame-canada.html.

Or dont you like to read things that may be against your tunnel vision?
http://stillunreal.blogspot.com/2007/01/excuse-me.html
Thursday, January 25, 2007 9:53:20 AM (Central Standard Time, UTC-06:00)
It's also important to remember one very important fact.

"Correlation does not equal causation"

Much of the "evidence" out there only shows that there is a rise in temperature, but do not definitely show the cause. As I said in the beginning of the post, I don't deny that some warming may be occurring. But I think that the scope of the warming is being exaggerated, and that the true cause has not been determined. We certainly don't know enough about the cause to make rational choices on how to fix the problem.

There have been various periods of significant warming, and significant cooling throughout the history of the Earth. Most people view what's occurring today as unique, simply because they're the ones experiencing it, and have no collective memory of past events. That's the problem with phenomena that take place over centuries, instead of months or years.

In fact, if this is a natural occurrence, which may be the case if the primary causation is in fact increased solar output (and there is recent strong evidence to support this idea), then our resources may be better spent in trying to find ways to ride it out, rather than squandered on trying to prevent it.
Thursday, January 25, 2007 11:18:59 AM (Central Standard Time, UTC-06:00)
Ummmm you can do a Greenhouse test at home in a simple experiment... We know more CO2 == hotter temperatures, it is not just correlation. We also know that humans are adding to the CO2 levels.

PS You can also look at Venus for a good example.
daver
Thursday, January 25, 2007 12:24:14 PM (Central Standard Time, UTC-06:00)
Daver... I think you're missing the point. The Earth is such a very large system, that to only look at a single variable and say that is the cause of everything, when many other variables are also changing is rather foolish.

And Venus, because of its proximity to the Sun is a dubious example. However, if you want to use other planets as a reference, then why not look at Mars? There has been no significant increase in human caused green house gases on that planet, yet in the last years it has been undergoing global warming.

If increased solar output were in fact a major contributor to global warming, using Mars as an experimental control would seem to prove this. As I have said, there is a lot of conflicting data... and too much at this point to make rash policy decisions that are being encouraged by many.
Thursday, January 25, 2007 2:29:19 PM (Central Standard Time, UTC-06:00)
daver is just too caught up in the kool-aid-a-thon to make any type of corrolations or extrapilatins, nick.
and he clearly doesnt get the point of your post.
Friday, January 26, 2007 10:52:12 AM (Central Standard Time, UTC-06:00)
stillUnreal:
Let's go this way: Why would you ask me about stuff I cannot do when I ask you about stuff you can do. We might be dead at some point because of a 'solar flare' but why should I care as I have no idea of it. I care about what I can do and I think this is reasonable.
Let us go this other way now: I read what you referenced me to. btw, did you? What do you think about this one: 'Willson indicates that if the current rate of increase of solar irradiance continues until the mid 21th century, then the surface temperatures will increase by about 0.5 C ' (from http://www-das.uwyo.edu/~geerts/cwx/notes/chap02/sunspots.html) Well, it looks to me we are going much faster than that. (I also read the rest that does support your point!)
Now let's combine the two ways: I presume that we agree that in general CO2 is bad for us, humans. I know that we are generating some of it (if not all, it might not be even deadly). Why should I keep doing it when I should try to have a nice home for myself for as long as possible. Or do I have some other priority?
One other thing: what, at this point, would make you change your mind and accept that we are producing global warming? This is how I try to evaluate my dogmatism. And my dogmatism connects the issue of the global warming with caring for the place you are in, for the people around you in general. Not only family and friends, but also potential family and friends.
What you have to put in my plate for me to change my mind has less to do with the global warming (I'm no scientist) and more to do with what harm will it happen should we accept we are the cause of it. That politicians will use it, that people would take advantage of it - I know. I just think it is a better thing to wish than the opposite. 'Feel-good laws' - why not? Aren't all laws 'feel-good' - education for everybody, food for everybody? I still think it is actually good fighting for even if we do not have them now.
luvian
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