NBC and the Wall Street Journal have a new poll out, trying to figure out how the House and Senate will swing this November.  Bush's overall approval is up a couple ticks to 42%, and his approval on Iraq is at 38%.  When asked, "What is your preference for the outcome of this year's congressional elections - a Congress controlled by Republicans or a Congress controlled by Democrats?", 48% said Democrats.  That sounds very scary for the GOP.  That is until you remember that people vote for their own representative, and not Congress as a whole.  That's where things look more interesting.

When asked whether people would use their vote as a message to George Bush, 25% said they'd vote as a positive message, while 37% said they'd vote as a negative message.  The other 36% said they wouldn't use it to send a message at all.  In other words, no matter how much they don't like Bush, they'd still vote for their representatives on their merits.  Weird I know.  More troubling still for the Democrats is that when asked:

Which of the following concerns you more? (A) That the Democrats have offered no specific plans or programs to deal with the issues facing the country so it is hard to know what they would do if they were to win the majority in Congress, OR (B) That the Republicans have offered no changes that they would make to deal with issues facing the country, so it is hard to know what they would do differently from President Bush's current policies if they were to retain the majority in Congress.

42% said that the Democrat's lacked a plan concerned them more, while 37% said that the Republican's lack of changes concerned them.  15% said some of both.

What this means, at least to me, is that no matter how badly Bush is doing, Democrat's simply won't capitalize as long as they don't have a clear alternative.  For as much as people don't like Bush, most people won't use that as a reason to vote out an incumbent Congressman, especially if he doesn't have a motto other than "Bush is Evil".  If the Democrat's lose out this November, it will be only their own fault.